The year starts well for our equity funds: Altex Momentum +1.47%, Altex Quality +4.45% and Altex P. Growth +4.48%. As to volatility, Altex Tactical fell back –1.10%.

Trump’s inauguration has brought highs and lows: His pro-growth policies with messages of less regulation, and lower wasteful and inefficient public spending are positive, whereas the announcement of general tariffs on his main trading partners is counterproductive. Canada and Mexico bear the brunt with tariffs of 25% while China has been hit less than expected (tariffs of 10% in addition to the existing ones). Europe is yet to be defined, and this uncertainty benefits none. The reaction from affected countries has not been long in coming, with announcements of reciprocal tariffs, and backs-and-forths as to when the measures will come into effect.

Markets:

Despite volatility, markets rose strongly in January: S&P 500 +2.70%, Nasdaq 100 +2.22%, Eurostoxx +7.98% and Dow Jones +4.70%.

Among the 7 magnificents the dispersion has been marked: Meta, Amazon and Alphabet up +17.7%, +8.3% and +7.8% while Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft fall, -10.6%, -5.8% and -1.5%, respectively. Tesla, flat +0.19%.

The news on Deepseek highlighted doubts about technological companies’ valuations. The truth is that this Chinese company’s software is free and accessible to the rest of competitors, so it should not substantially change the competitive landscape, although it brings to light the speed of the advances in technology and how suddenly expectations can change. They will continue to strive for the best hardware, but the pace of obsolescence is fast making the risk of falling into overpriced companies high.

By factors and company size, it was a good month for medium-sized companies with a momentum bias. In large companies, cyclicals with a value profile performed well. By sectors, financials, industrials and healthcare dominated. Gold performed very well thanks to the renewed inflation and growth expectations, which remain in the equilibrium zone, allowing the time horizon of high interest rates to be extended.

Bonds again contributed positively while US employment data and PMIs continue to point to a robust economy with controlled inflation. The EURUSD closed the month flat but with heightened volatility. The announcement of new tariffs has once more strengthened the US currency, and policy interventions are promptly adjusted.

Outlook:

The first quantitative studies we recorded at the beginning of the year are positive and make us hope for a bullish 2025, although with a volatile first quarter, with significant ups and downs.

The economy is improving, and inflation remains in scope. Expectations of interest rate cuts in the US are moderating, while European rate cuts continue to follow their course. This divergence in monetary policy between the US and Europe favors the USD, to which we remain heavily exposed in our funds and portfolios.

Our equity models have been positioning us towards industrials and technology with a higher diversification than the indices, helping us to outperform the American indices at the start of the year. The quick reaction time of our DIPS hedging system allows us to remain exposed to stock markets at a time when we need to be very selective in the companies and sectors we buy.